Methodology

Every school shows a rounded percentage (the “Admit %”) estimating how likely this student is to be admitted. This number is a statistical estimate, not a prediction.

Inputs

• Test score. SAT (400–1600) used directly; ACT (1–36) converted via concordance to an SAT-equivalent, then the higher of the two is used.
• GPA. Unweighted 0.0–4.0 scale. If a weighted GPA is provided, it is normalized down to the 4.0 scale before scoring.
• Extracurriculars. Up to 5 activities, each tagged with a tier:
  • Tier 1 — National / rare distinction, 8 pts (e.g., USAMO qualifier, YoungArts Winner, recruited D1 athlete, founder of a 501(c)(3))
  • Tier 2 — State-level or clear leadership, 5 pts (e.g., state competition winner, Student Body President, all-state athlete, Editor-in-Chief)
  • Tier 3 — Active role with real contribution, 3 pts (e.g., club officer, varsity team member, section leader in band, 1+ year weekly volunteer)
  • Tier 4 — Member / participant, 1 pt (e.g., club member without a role, JV athlete, one-off service hours)
  • Top 5 activities counted; total capped at 15 points.
• School admission rate. Pulled from the U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard.
• School 25th/75th SAT percentiles. Used to locate the student within the school’s admitted range.

Logic

A logistic model starts with the school’s base admission rate, then adjusts:

• SAT position is scored by how many standard deviations above or below the school’s midpoint the student sits. Swing: roughly −30 to +25 points.
• GPA adds between −20 (below 2.7) and +12 (3.9+) points on a step function.
• EC score adds up to ~15 points, scaled by school selectivity — ECs matter more at highly selective schools and less at open-access ones.

The SAT and GPA adjustments are dampened at very selective schools (because a strong profile is table-stakes, not a differentiator) and amplified at less selective ones. The final chance is clamped between 5% and 95% and rounded to the nearest 5%.

Tier boundaries

• Safety: 65%+
• Target: 35%–65%
• Reach: below 35%

What the model does NOT consider

This is the most important section. Our chance estimate does not account for:

• Essays, recommendation letters, or supplemental writing
• Demonstrated interest, campus visits, or interview performance
• Legacy, first-generation, or geographic preferences
• Recruited athletics, arts portfolios, or other talent-based admits
• Early Decision or Early Action bumps
• Course rigor (AP/IB/honors load) beyond the GPA number
• Institutional priorities that shift year-to-year (yield protection, gender balance, program-specific quotas)
• Any holistic-review factor a human reader would weigh

A strong essay can move a Reach into a Target. A weak rec can pull a Target into a Reach. Do not use our number as a go/no-go on applying.Use it as one data point among many, alongside your counselor’s judgment.

Each school in the search results gets a Stairway Ranking— a letter (A+ through C) reflecting how strong it is for the selected major, or for overall academic quality when no major is selected. The Stairway Ranking is relative to the current search results, not an absolute benchmark. Change your filters (SAT range, region, budget) and the same school may earn a different letter.

How the Stairway Ranking is calculated

Under the hood, each school is scored 0–100 on up to six factors, each percentile-ranked against the other schools in the current result set. The weighted average becomes a composite score, which is then mapped to a letter.

Factors & weights (with a major selected)

Factors & weights (no major selected)

When no major is selected, program-specific factors aren’t available. The remaining school-level factors are reweighted proportionally to produce a pure “school quality” ranking:

If a factor is missing data for a given school, it’s dropped and remaining weights are renormalized. A minimum of two factors with data is required — otherwise the Stairway Ranking shows “N/A.”

Letter-grade boundaries

There is no D or F. Every school in our data is an accredited 4-year program with 500+ enrolled students — a low letter means “ranked lower than peers in this major in your current search,” not “failing institution.”

Two cost numbers appear on school cards:

• Total Cost— sticker price (tuition + fees + room/board + books) from Scorecard’s cost.attendance.academic_year. For public schools, if the student’s home state doesn’t match the school’s state, we add the tuition differential to estimate out-of-state cost.
• Avg Net Price— the average cost students actually pay after grants and scholarships. This is an average across all aid recipients, so individual financial aid offers will vary substantially.

Neither number reflects merit aid specific to the student, outside scholarships, or loan burden. They’re directional, not a financial plan.

• Essay Studio generates brainstorming questions and gives critique feedback on drafts. It does notwrite essays for students. Drafts stay private to the student’s account.
• Strategy Generatoruses the student’s profile and preferences to suggest a categorized college list (Reach / Target / Safety). Suggestions are starting points for a counselor conversation, not final decisions.

All AI features use Google Gemini 2.5 Flash with prompt-injection defenses on user input. Free tier is limited to 3 AI generations per day.

• College Scorecard— U.S. Department of Education (collegescorecard.ed.gov). Annual data release; most recent figures lag the current academic year by ~1–2 years.
• Internal calculations— admission chance and Stairway Rankings are computed by StairwayU from Scorecard inputs plus the student’s profile.

We do not buy, sell, or trade student data. Profile data is stored in Supabase with row-level security and is only accessible to the student’s account.

• Not a replacement for a college counselor.
• Not a guarantor of admission outcomes.
• Not pay-to-play — no school pays to appear or rank higher in our results.
• Not a data broker — student profiles are not shared with schools or third parties.

If a school’s data looks wrong, a cost estimate is off, or a chance calculation seems clearly miscalibrated, email us at support@stairwayu.com with the school name and what you’re seeing. Scorecard data corrections are propagated on our next sync; internal model adjustments are versioned and dated at the top of this page.